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TikTok Shop seller profit forecast

TikTok Shop Profit Calculator

Start with five simple numbers. See profit, margin and a store forecast instantly. Add advanced assumptions only when you need more precision.

5free SKUs12forecast monthsPDFincluded
01 · Market model
TikTok Shop fee6%
Referral fee default: 6%
Start with the five numbers that actually decide profit.Optional costs stay hidden until you need them. Pro adds visual decisions, forecasts and knowledge base access without making the first calculation harder.
6 months · Forecast

01 · Products

Your products

Start with one SKU. Add more when you want a full-store forecast.

5 beginner inputs: price · product cost · creator commission · ad cost per sale · monthly orders
01TikTok fee 6%
USD
What one customer pays for one item before any separate seller discount.
ExampleIf one item sells for 40, enter 40 — not the value of all monthly sales.
USD
What it costs to buy or make one unit.
ExampleIf sourcing one unit costs 12, enter 12. Do not repeat costs entered elsewhere.
%
The share of an attributed sale paid to the creator.
ExampleAt a 40 commission base and 10%, the creator receives 4 per attributed sale.
USD
Use ad spend and orders from the same period. This is an allocation, not proof of incremental acquisition cost.
Example600 in ad spend divided by 100 orders in the same period gives 6 per order.
Your expected monthly order volume — an assumption, not a guarantee.
ExampleEnter 100 for an estimate of 100 orders in one month.
Contribution / order $11.76Margin — 35.4%Break-even — $20.25

Forecast

Forecast assumptions

Default forecast is ready. Open this only if you want to change the month count or growth scenarios.

6 forecast months · editable
Decline
% · MoM
Stable
% · MoM
Growth
% · MoM

Example: 100 orders with 10% monthly growth become 110, then 121. This is a volume assumption, not guaranteed demand or a higher margin.

TikTok fees

Referral fees are commonly 5%–6% by category; this calculator uses 6% by default. Confirm the current rate in Seller Center.

  • Referral fee default: 6%
  • Some categories: 5%
Seller Center is authoritative

Knowledge base

Visual forecast

Charts stay clean by default. Hover for exact monthly values; the table below keeps every number available for screenshots and PDF exports.

Contribution forecast

Three plain scenarios. The number means how order volume changes each month, not how contribution per order changes.

$1.9K$1.4K$946.9$473.4$0Decline · M1: $1,175.90Decline · M2: $1,117.11Decline · M3: $1,061.25Decline · M4: $1,008.19Decline · M5: $957.78Decline · M6: $909.89$909.9Stable · M1: $1,175.90Stable · M2: $1,175.90Stable · M3: $1,175.90Stable · M4: $1,175.90Stable · M5: $1,175.90Stable · M6: $1,175.90$1.2KGrowth · M1: $1,175.90Growth · M2: $1,293.49Growth · M3: $1,422.84Growth · M4: $1,565.12Growth · M5: $1,721.64Growth · M6: $1,893.80$1.9KM1M2M3M4M5M6
DeclineStableGrowth
ScenarioM1M2M3M4M5M6
Decline$1,175.90$1,117.11$1,061.25$1,008.19$957.78$909.89
Stable$1,175.90$1,175.90$1,175.90$1,175.90$1,175.90$1,175.90
Growth$1,175.90$1,293.49$1,422.84$1,565.12$1,721.64$1,893.80

Only final values are labelled on the chart; all exact values are shown in the table.

Where each sale goes

Per-order economics

Average retained revenue / order$33.25
COGS$9.55
TikTok fees$2.02
Creator$3.33
Ads$5.00
Fulfilment$1.50
Return impact + Other$0.10
Contribution / order$11.76

Revenue vs costs vs contribution

Stable revenue · Stable costs · Stable contribution

RevenueCostsContribution forecast$3.3K$2.5K$1.7K$831.3$0Revenue · M1: $3,325.00Costs · M1: $2,149.10Contribution forecast · M1: $1,175.90M1Revenue · M2: $3,325.00Costs · M2: $2,149.10Contribution forecast · M2: $1,175.90M2Revenue · M3: $3,325.00Costs · M3: $2,149.10Contribution forecast · M3: $1,175.90M3Revenue · M4: $3,325.00Costs · M4: $2,149.10Contribution forecast · M4: $1,175.90M4Revenue · M5: $3,325.00Costs · M5: $2,149.10Contribution forecast · M5: $1,175.90M5Revenue · M6: $3,325.00Costs · M6: $2,149.10Contribution forecast · M6: $1,175.90M6
Revenue vs costs vs contribution
MonthRevenueCostsContribution forecast
M1$3,325.00$2,149.10$1,175.90
M2$3,325.00$2,149.10$1,175.90
M3$3,325.00$2,149.10$1,175.90
M4$3,325.00$2,149.10$1,175.90
M5$3,325.00$2,149.10$1,175.90
M6$3,325.00$2,149.10$1,175.90

Product margin ranking

Expected margin % · Category / product

1. Product 135.4%

United States · Market pulse

Country-aware demand signals to help you decide what to investigate next. Market popularity is not the same as profit — your highest-margin SKU is calculated separately from your own numbers.

Direct market data · Aug 2026
💄
Demand leaderBeauty & Personal Care
$322.56M Aug revenue

Kalodata ranked Beauty first in its August 2026 US category table.

👗
Fastest top-5 growthWomenswear & Underwear
+12.3%

Fastest growth among the August top five categories in the ranking.

⚽
Large growth laneSports & Outdoor
$143.32M Aug revenue

The category also gained strongly from spring into summer.

📈
Your best marginProduct 1
35.4% · Expected margin %

Your best margin

💄Beauty & Personal Care👗Womenswear⚽Sports & Outdoor🏠Home & Appliances

Data window: August / latest summer 2026 category snapshots. Sources: Kalodata US August 2026 ranking · Colaba summer 2026 category data. Margin note: demand, GMV and unit growth do not prove seller profitability; your fourth card uses your own economics.

Independent planning tool. Not affiliated with or endorsed by TikTok. Market fees, product-category rates, taxes, incentive missions and settlement rules can change. Where a market uses category-based commission rates, the calculator clearly asks you to confirm or override the category rate. Seller Center remains authoritative.

A sale is not the same as profit

How to calculate TikTok Shop profit

Start with seller revenue after discounts and refunds. Subtract product cost, platform fees, creator payouts, advertising, fulfilment and return costs. Divide what remains by retained revenue to get your contribution margin.

A worked $40 example

$40 − $12 product − $2.40 platform fee − $4 creator − $6 ads − $4 fulfilment = $11.60 contribution, or 29%.

Illustrative US standard-fee order. No discounts, returns, shipping income or tax. Fixed overhead is not included.

Repeat the example in Advanced mode →

Find the answer behind the number

United States · How to read it

TikTok Shop profit tools · United States

Only 5 inputs are required per product. Common analytics terms are shown in brackets, and every advanced assumption stays hidden by default.

  1. 1
    Selling price

    Price paid before discounts · USD

  2. 2
    Product cost (COGS)

    Your real product cost

  3. 3
    TikTok fees

    Referral fees are commonly 5%–6% by category; this calculator uses 6% by default. Confirm the current rate in Seller Center.

  4. 4
    Creator commission (affiliate %)

    Paid to creator on attributed sales · Average paid ads cost to get 1 order

  5. 5
    Break-even price

    Max creator commission % · Max CPA at target margin

How to read it

What TikTok Shop fee does the United States calculator use?

Referral fees are commonly 5%–6% by category; this calculator uses 6% by default. Confirm the current rate in Seller Center. The calculator starts with a 6% rate where a reliable default exists, and lets the seller enter or override the exact category rate when needed.

Does the United States profit calculator include creator commission and ads?

Yes. Each product can include creator commission, advertising cost per sale, COGS, fulfilment, returns and other per-order costs in USD.

What is the break-even price?

Break-even price is the estimated selling price at which revenue covers the modelled platform, creator, advertising, product, fulfilment and return costs with no remaining profit.

Should I use the calculator instead of Seller Center?

No. marqflow is an independent planning tool. Seller Center remains authoritative for current account, category, tax, incentive and settlement rules.

Visual forecast

PDF for sharing · Excel for deeper analysis.

Pricing