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TikTok Shop seller profit forecast

TikTok Shop Profit Calculator

Start with five simple numbers. See profit, margin and a store forecast instantly. Add advanced assumptions only when you need more precision.

5free SKUs12forecast monthsPDFincluded
01 · Market model
TikTok Shop fee9%
Platform commission: 9%
Start with the five numbers that actually decide profit.Optional costs stay hidden until you need them. Pro adds visual decisions, forecasts and knowledge base access without making the first calculation harder.
6 months · Forecast

01 · Products

Your products

Start with one SKU. Add more when you want a full-store forecast.

5 beginner inputs: price · product cost · creator commission · ad cost per sale · monthly orders
01TikTok fee 9%
GBP
What one customer pays for one item before any separate seller discount.
ExampleIf one item sells for 40, enter 40 — not the value of all monthly sales.
GBP
What it costs to buy or make one unit.
ExampleIf sourcing one unit costs 12, enter 12. Do not repeat costs entered elsewhere.
%
The share of an attributed sale paid to the creator.
ExampleAt a 40 commission base and 10%, the creator receives 4 per attributed sale.
GBP
Use ad spend and orders from the same period. This is an allocation, not proof of incremental acquisition cost.
Example600 in ad spend divided by 100 orders in the same period gives 6 per order.
Your expected monthly order volume — an assumption, not a guarantee.
ExampleEnter 100 for an estimate of 100 orders in one month.
Contribution / order £10.78Margin — 32.4%Break-even — £20.99

Forecast

Forecast assumptions

Default forecast is ready. Open this only if you want to change the month count or growth scenarios.

6 forecast months · editable
Decline
% · MoM
Stable
% · MoM
Growth
% · MoM

Example: 100 orders with 10% monthly growth become 110, then 121. This is a volume assumption, not guaranteed demand or a higher margin.

TikTok fees

9% standard commission; eligible Electronics and selected Beauty & Personal Care categories can use 5%.

  • Platform commission: 9%
  • Eligible reduced categories: 5%
Seller Center is authoritative

Knowledge base

Visual forecast

Charts stay clean by default. Hover for exact monthly values; the table below keeps every number available for screenshots and PDF exports.

Contribution forecast

Three plain scenarios. The number means how order volume changes each month, not how contribution per order changes.

£1.7K£1.3K£868.3£434.1£0Decline · M1: £1,078.25Decline · M2: £1,024.34Decline · M3: £973.12Decline · M4: £924.46Decline · M5: £878.24Decline · M6: £834.33£834.3Stable · M1: £1,078.25Stable · M2: £1,078.25Stable · M3: £1,078.25Stable · M4: £1,078.25Stable · M5: £1,078.25Stable · M6: £1,078.25£1.1KGrowth · M1: £1,078.25Growth · M2: £1,186.08Growth · M3: £1,304.68Growth · M4: £1,435.15Growth · M5: £1,578.67Growth · M6: £1,736.53£1.7KM1M2M3M4M5M6
DeclineStableGrowth
ScenarioM1M2M3M4M5M6
Decline£1,078.25£1,024.34£973.12£924.46£878.24£834.33
Stable£1,078.25£1,078.25£1,078.25£1,078.25£1,078.25£1,078.25
Growth£1,078.25£1,186.08£1,304.68£1,435.15£1,578.67£1,736.53

Only final values are labelled on the chart; all exact values are shown in the table.

Where each sale goes

Per-order economics

Average retained revenue / order£33.25
COGS£9.55
TikTok fees£2.99
Creator£3.33
Ads£5.00
Fulfilment£1.50
Return impact + Other£0.10
Contribution / order£10.78

Revenue vs costs vs contribution

Stable revenue · Stable costs · Stable contribution

RevenueCostsContribution forecast£3.3K£2.5K£1.7K£831.3£0Revenue · M1: £3,325.00Costs · M1: £2,246.75Contribution forecast · M1: £1,078.25M1Revenue · M2: £3,325.00Costs · M2: £2,246.75Contribution forecast · M2: £1,078.25M2Revenue · M3: £3,325.00Costs · M3: £2,246.75Contribution forecast · M3: £1,078.25M3Revenue · M4: £3,325.00Costs · M4: £2,246.75Contribution forecast · M4: £1,078.25M4Revenue · M5: £3,325.00Costs · M5: £2,246.75Contribution forecast · M5: £1,078.25M5Revenue · M6: £3,325.00Costs · M6: £2,246.75Contribution forecast · M6: £1,078.25M6
Revenue vs costs vs contribution
MonthRevenueCostsContribution forecast
M1£3,325.00£2,246.75£1,078.25
M2£3,325.00£2,246.75£1,078.25
M3£3,325.00£2,246.75£1,078.25
M4£3,325.00£2,246.75£1,078.25
M5£3,325.00£2,246.75£1,078.25
M6£3,325.00£2,246.75£1,078.25

Product margin ranking

Expected margin % · Category / product

1. Product 132.4%

United Kingdom · Market pulse

Country-aware demand signals to help you decide what to investigate next. Market popularity is not the same as profit — your highest-margin SKU is calculated separately from your own numbers.

Direct market data · H1 2026
💄
Demand leaderBeauty & Personal Care
7 of 10 durable best sellers

Beauty, skincare, oral care and hair care dominated the durable bestseller board.

🦷
Durable product laneOral Care
£2.37M Jan-May

Whitening strips ranked among the strongest persistent sellers.

🧴
Rising nicheHair & Scalp Care
Rising

Hair-growth and scalp products appeared among the products still gaining momentum.

📈
Your best marginProduct 1
32.4% · Expected margin %

Your best margin

💄Beauty & Skincare↗Oral Care↗Hair & Scalp⚽Sport Apparel

Data window: January-May 2026 consistent bestseller snapshot. Sources: FastMoss UK H1 2026 best sellers. Margin note: demand, GMV and unit growth do not prove seller profitability; your fourth card uses your own economics.

Independent planning tool. Not affiliated with or endorsed by TikTok. Market fees, product-category rates, taxes, incentive missions and settlement rules can change. Where a market uses category-based commission rates, the calculator clearly asks you to confirm or override the category rate. Seller Center remains authoritative.

United Kingdom · How to read it

TikTok Shop profit tools · United Kingdom

Only 5 inputs are required per product. Common analytics terms are shown in brackets, and every advanced assumption stays hidden by default.

  1. 1
    Selling price

    Price paid before discounts · GBP

  2. 2
    Product cost (COGS)

    Your real product cost

  3. 3
    TikTok fees

    9% standard commission; eligible Electronics and selected Beauty & Personal Care categories can use 5%.

  4. 4
    Creator commission (affiliate %)

    Paid to creator on attributed sales · Average paid ads cost to get 1 order

  5. 5
    Break-even price

    Max creator commission % · Max CPA at target margin

How to read it

What TikTok Shop fee does the United Kingdom calculator use?

9% standard commission; eligible Electronics and selected Beauty & Personal Care categories can use 5%. The calculator starts with a 9% rate where a reliable default exists, and lets the seller enter or override the exact category rate when needed.

Does the United Kingdom profit calculator include creator commission and ads?

Yes. Each product can include creator commission, advertising cost per sale, COGS, fulfilment, returns and other per-order costs in GBP.

What is the break-even price?

Break-even price is the estimated selling price at which revenue covers the modelled platform, creator, advertising, product, fulfilment and return costs with no remaining profit.

Should I use the calculator instead of Seller Center?

No. marqflow is an independent planning tool. Seller Center remains authoritative for current account, category, tax, incentive and settlement rules.

Visual forecast

PDF for sharing · Excel for deeper analysis.

Pricing